Payne and Pleasure 8.2.04
By William Payne


You know what I'm tired of? The rhetoric from the political elite, such as pollster John Zogby, about how Bush-Cheney is going to lose. I mean, look at it electorally. We only have roughly five home states to defend- Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, and the infamous Florida. Nevada is not a huge target of Botoxulun's campaign. He pulled his ads out of Missouri and Arkansas. Arkansas, of course, is Cousin Bill's home state which went for Bush over Bill's VP in 2000. Missouri is slightly less encouraging, but still likely to remain a Red State. Ohio is going to be a tough race, but the job losses there can be overcome by the state's conservative underpinnings. Florida, like Ohio, leans Republican anyways, and it has gotten more conservative. It also has been on the front of the job gains within the last year. Jeb Bush's landslide victory two years ago, when he was up against everything Terry McAuliffe could throw at him, produced a huge margin of victory for George W. Bush's younger brother. Plus, the idea of the Angry Florida Democrats is nullified by two points: First, that all the people who are angry voted for Gore in 2000 and were already voting against the President in 2004. Secondly, the minorities aren't nearly as enthusiastic about the Long-Faced Man as they were about Gore, whose Get Out The Vote efforts in 2000 likely cannot be reproduced. Oh, and those old New York Jews in Florida pass away frequently, so there are progressively less of them.

On the other hand, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all within reach for the President. The latest polls show a 2-point Botoxulun lead in Michigan, a tie in Minnesota, and a 1-point Bush lead in Iowa. Wisconsin has shown Bush leads within the last month, and it went for Gore by far less than 1% in 2000. The President obviously wants to contest Pennsylvania, which is looking increasingly left-leaning, but, regardless, it still requires massive resources from the Long-Faced Man's Campaign must be devoted to defending Pennsylvania, a state that went solidly for Gore in 2000. In addition, while the Opponent has taken the lead in New Hampshire, which Bush won in 2000, both New Hampshire and Maine are within reach of the President. Plus, with Maine's voting system, in which the winner of the congressional district gets that district's electoral vote, Bush might get an electoral vote out of Maine, making it 269-269 instead of a Bush loss, or a 270 Bush win instead of a tie, which would lead to a messy vote in the House. However, any tie would result in a Bush win, so 269-269 isn't THAT bad, except for legitimacy.

In addition, there are some outside factor. The economy is improving nicely. The violence in Iraq has died down somewhat. The Dem Convention will be totally erased form voters' minds with the Summer Olympics. Following those, at the end of August, after the DNC has faded into memory, the Republicans will hold their Convention, which happens to be in New York a week or so before Patriot Day. Also, with the protests planned in New York, Bush has the possibility to embarrass the Left by making the protestors looking stupid and/or extreme/out-of-touch. If so, then the Democratic Ticket risks being associated with these Madonna/Martin Sheen/Michael Moore liberals, which is good for Bush. Also, in that time period between Botoxulun's speech on Thursday and Bush's acceptance of the nomination in September, Bush gets to spend freely his remaining campaign war chest, while the Long-Faced Man must conserve his either $55 or $75 million for the time between his acceptance and 2 November. Bush, then , will get to spend freely between now and September, and then he will have a significant advantage of the Opponent because he will be able to spend the same amount of money, but over a shorter period of time. Botoxulun loses either way- If he spends all of his money initially, he gets pounded by Bush in the final weeks without retaliatory ads. If he waits until those final weeks to spend his money, the President will already have wiped him out. If he spends it gradually over time, Bush will simply have the numerical advantage ad-wise, which is a good thing. The DNC people say they plan a heavy ad blitz right after the convention. However, the President can match this offensive, as he has the aforementioned almost-unlimited resources of his primary money to match the Democrats' limited funds. Hence, that only helps the President. Also, those ads will be wiped from voters' memories with the Olympics, along with those memories of the convention.

A warning to both parties: the debates. Muy malo. The Opponent is easily mistaken for a dead tree, and Bush's invented words do not exactly make him look intelligent. This reminds me of 2000, with the candidate who gives off the impression that he is as dead as many of the corpses that keep voting Democratic in America's elections debating the candidate who has dumb looks and creative word choice. But, overall, I think Bush is a lot more likeable than the Tree.

One final element of the likeliness of a Bush reelection is October. The news in October, assuming neither the economy nor Iraq deteriorates, will be completely positive for the President. There are two options for an October surprise, and either one or both could happen. There is always the scenario of a discovery of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, which would validate the War- proving that "OH YEAH! I guess Bush was right all along..." The other possibility is one being sort of passed around via rumor on the internet: Russian troops join the Coalition of the Willing. Supposedly, sources within both the Bush and Putin Administrations confirmed that, in mid-October, the Russians will announce that they are sending 40,000 troops to Iraq- to Fallujah. Not only is that someone to do the dirty work in opposing the terrorists, but that's a huge relief to US troops. Instead of close to 140,000 troops that we currently have in Iraq, we can overall reduce our troop levels by the planned 20-30,000 troops along with the 40,000 troops from Russia. Hence, that's between a 60-70,000 strong withdrawal from Iraq. This basically cuts the US troop levels in Iraq in half, a major benefit for the US in the first place, and a HUGE electoral benefit for the Bush Campaign. So, if either of these stories comes through, along with, say, a discovery of an affair on the part of Botoxulun or something like, the October Surprise massively damages Kerry, not Bush. No more DUIs a few days before the election, on the very day that Ross Perot endorses Bush. Not to mention a nation-uniting terrorist attack. However, I won't talk about how that would help Bush, because that would be terrible to speculate about using peoples’ deaths to get the President reelected. I will say, though, that they tried to influence the elections in Spain and it worked. But this ain't Spain. America does not back down.

I am sticking with my early prediction of a reelection this year. Common sense wise, how could the country elect a Massachusetts, Dukakis-esque- Heck, Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor!- liberal from Massachusetts during the War on Terror. It is just not going to happen. Nor does a recovering economy need Botoxulun's tax hikes. And, finally, who are you going to choose, Mr. Regular Guy, from Crawford, Texas, who is a normal man who sometimes messes up when he speaks, or Mr. Elitist Massachusetts Liberal, who owns eight mansions and pitifully pretends to be a hunter, an average union worker, or a NASCAR fan, while he really lives a life of ultra-privilege thanks to Republican Senator Heinz of Pennsylvania's ketchup fortune. I know who I would choose.

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